经济学家表示，澳大利亚创纪录的低利率，而不是政府的支持，是COVID-19大流行期间大规模推动首次购房的驱动力。
根据澳大利亚统计局的数据，自2020年3月以来，约有300,000名首次置业者进入房地产市场，联盟党此前主要将此归功于其支持计划。
但墨尔本研究所的相关教授Sam Tsiaplias本周在墨尔本经济论坛的一次会议上表示，这一高峰与COVID-19诱发的经济衰退有更大关系，而不是其他什么。
“Tsiaplias博士说：”我们可能认为经济正在放缓，[因此]首次置业者更难购买，但正是在这些时期，首次置业者活动实际上激增。
澳大利亚储备银行的现金利率在2020年从0.75%降至历史最低的0.1%，当时对首次置业者的贷款承诺开始飙升至接近历史最高水平。
在全球金融危机期间也出现了类似的趋势，现金利率从2008年底的5.25%下降到次年4月的3%。2009年期间，约有17.3万名首次置业者获得了贷款住房承诺，而前一年约有11万名。
“那么，为什么在这些低迷时期，首次置业者活动会增加？以及为什么它也许与需求驱动的[政府]政策关系不大，”Tsiaplias博士问。
主要原因是家庭的借贷能力增加，以及由于利率降低而导致的服务成本下降，再加上投资者的活动减少，他们通常能够击败首次购房者。
但这并不意味着政府政策没有发挥作用，他补充说。
然而，他们只倾向于帮助一小部分早期采用者，然后推高市场中可负担的一端的价格–或政策所涵盖的那部分市场–然后锁定那些后来者。
它最终会蔓延到更昂贵的市场，因为人们在价格上涨的地方套现，搬到其他地区，并在那里重启这一过程。
他列举的计划包括联盟党的第一套住房贷款存款计划、新房担保和工党的新 “帮助购买 “计划，在该计划中，政府将提供高达40%的资产。
例如，根据CoreLogic对房价中位数的评估，使用工党 “帮助购买 “计划的首次购房者将在悉尼不到20%的郊区和墨尔本的30%的郊区进行争夺。
在全国范围内，根据房产价格中位数，只有三分之一的郊区可以进入该计划，但如果像一些经济学家预测的那样，价格下滑10%，将使这一比例增加到43%。
据CoreLogic公司的国际首席执行官Lisa Claes称，工党的计划将把更多的需求引入最可负担的市场，这反过来又会给 “价格带来额外的上升压力”。
Tsiaplias博士说，除了一小部分提前进入计划的家庭，这种政策并没有增加住房的可负担性，从长远来看，他们可能不会增加整体的可负担性。
他说：”而且它们实际上可能会降低可负担性。”他补充说，帮助收入最低的五分之一家庭的最佳方式可能是通过租赁改革和增加社会住房的容量。
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